RBI said monetary management in the current fiscal will be dominated by the challenge of moderating inflation and anchoring inflation expectations, while remaining supportive of growth impulses.
Bold reform measures to sustain high growth trajectory figure high.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday met IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva and discussed a range of issues, including impact of geopolitical situation on global growth.
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday expressed hope that the economy will maintain the trend growth rate of 6.5 per cent and above for the rest of the years in the current decade. The economy will close the current fiscal logging in a growth of 6.5-7 per cent, he said, citing the projections of private sector analysts, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and international agencies like OECD and the IMF. "This appears to be reasonable at this point in time although we will get the data on the fiscal second quarter in a few days, which will give more clarity on these numbers.
The challenge is to enhance opportunities for people to generate livelihoods through entrepreneurship, both big and small, argues R Jagannathan.
The European Commission has unveiled plans for a radical reform of the European Union's economic governance to tackle the underlying causes of the current debt crisis in the euro area.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday projected inflation to come down below the upper threshold level of 6 per cent by March quarter of the current fiscal. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank will keep 'Arjuna's eye' (focus) on the evolving inflation dynamics and will remain 'nimble and flexible' to deal with the price situation. Global commodity prices, including crude oil, have undergone some downward correction, but uncertainty continues to surround the near-term outlook in view of the prolonging geo-political hostilities. Moreover, the resurgence in domestic services sector activity could also lead to price increases, especially as firms pass on input costs.
Here are the key numbers to watch out for in the Budget for 2022-23, which is widely expected to boost spending towards policies that create jobs, boost manufacturing, helping rural and agri-economy and infrastructure creation. Sitharaman, who had in her first budget in 2019 replaced leather briefcase -- which had been in use for decades for carrying budget documents -- with a traditional red cloth 'bahi-khata', has spurt in tax collections to her aid in the budget that is expected to a spend-all budget.
A possible solution would be to set them up in the barren land or in land with low agricultural productivity.
The mid-and small-cap segments at the bourses have outperformed their larger peers thus far in fiscal 2023-24 (FY24). While the S&P BSE Small-cap index has surged around 5.7 per cent in FY24, the S&P BSE Midcap index has gained 4 per cent during this period. In comparison, the S&P BSE Sensex has moved up around 2.2 per cent.
WPI inflation fell to a 5-year low of 3.74 per cent while the retail inflation was at 7.8 per cent in August.
At present, the NMP states a series of fiscal incentives, including tax sops, will be offered but only to small and medium enterprises.
'This segment has performed very well for us and this is reflected in our bounce rate which is about three to four per cent.'
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is scheduled to address the post-budget meeting of the RBI's central board on Monday and highlight key points of the Union Budget 2022-23, including the fiscal consolidation roadmap and high capex plan. It has been a custom that the finance minister addresses the RBI board, consisting of RBI Governor and existing four deputy governors, after the Budget. The meeting has been scheduled for February 14 where she would be addressing the board members and talk about announcements made in the Budget to perk up growth hit by three waves of COVID-19, sources said.
Echoing the position articulated by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, China and Russia on Thursday warned that imminent withdrawal of fiscal stimulus by the US could have an adverse impact on the global economy and cautioned the Obama administration against it.
How do we get back to higher trend growth? The heart of the problem lies in private corporate investment, recommends Ajay Shah.
If the government cuts wasteful expenditure as it is trying now, the deficit would at most fall to 8 per cent, not less than that.
As he left for the G-20 Summit in Toronto, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh ion Friday cautioned that the global economic recovery is 'still fragile and uneven' and asked world leaders to calibrate exit strategies in the light of growing concerns over expansionary fiscal policies.
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The agency also warned the government of overshooting the fiscal deficit target at 4.8 per cent due to poor revenue growth and pegged it at 5.2 per cent this fiscal.
However, it may still not change its stance on the policy rate as inflationary pressures are coming from high commodity prices.
The bulk of the incremental profits will come from oil & gas and automobile sectors.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent and decided to continue with its accommodative stance against the backdrop of concerns over the emergence of the new coronavirus variant Omicron.
'India is possibly the most fiscally constrained market in the region.'
For all its claims to economic glory, the majority of India's population lives vulnerable lives, a situation that has only worsened over the past 15 years, to the extent that the government now fears to release economic data or even conduct a proper Census, notes Rathin Roy.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh ruled out any rollback in hike in petrol and diesel prices, saying the economy has the capacity to absorb the increase without triggering an inflationary spiral. Singh also made it clear that following populist fiscal policies for long harmed the economy, two days after key United Pogressive Alliance allies Trinamool Congress and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam made a strong pitch for the rollback.
Moody's on Friday slashed India's GDP growth projections for 2022 to 7 per cent from 7.7 per cent earlier as the global slowdown and rising domestic interest rates will dampen economic momentum. This is the second time that Moody's Investors Service has cut India's growth estimates. In September, it had cut projections for the current year to 7.7 per cent from 8.8 per cent estimated in May. "For India, the 2022 real GDP growth projections have been lowered to 7 per cent from 7.7 per cent.
Average policy rate over the next three years should be around 7.4%
While most economies contracted in the second quarter of 2020, the Chinese economy grew by 3.2 per cent.
Growth remains weak, inflation is within 2-6% range, rate cut would help recoup forex reserves
With the world's worst outbreak of COVID pandemic stalling a nascent economic recovery, the government has begun assessing the impact of the second wave of infections on different sectors and may look at providing support at an appropriate time to segments requiring fiscal help. Some of the economic indicators, including the Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections, still provide confidence and incoming data will throw some more light on the state of the economy, sources said. Services sectors like hospitality, tourism and aviation which had just started recovering were hit hard by the second wave of COVID, the sources said, adding these segments might need some support on an urgent basis from the government.
Steel Minister B K Tripathy on Tuesday said the new steel policy would be ready by early next year.
Under Urjit Patel, the then RBI Governor, the central bank had a habit of making complete about-turns on various issues, including electoral bonds and digital payments, former finance secretary Subash Chandra Garg said in his book titled 'We Also Make Policy: An Insider's Account of How the Finance Ministry Functions.' Citing some instances of about-turns by the then RBI Governor Patel, Garg in his book said, RBI had done so on the electoral bond issue and it had so in case of setting up of Payments Regulatory Board (PRB). RBI also made unilateral decisions like ordering complete data localization for participation in the payment system, Garg wrote in the book which will hit the stands on October 1.
The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel on Wednesday began its three-day deliberations on the next bi-monthly monetary policy amid expectations of at least a 35-basis-point hike in the interest rate to check high inflation. If raised, it will be the third consecutive hike in the repo rate -- the short-term rate at which the RBI lends money to banks. The central bank has already announced to gradually withdraw its accommodative monetary policy stance.
The report said efforts to stabilise the economy through monetary policy interventions need to be complemented by appropriate fiscal policy measures.
Protectionism and a rollback of regulation. Defusion of tensions with Russia and a lowering of geo-political risks. Looser fiscal policy and tighter monetary policy. At least Donald Trump can't be faulted for not trying something different where existing policies have disappointed, says T T Ram Mohan.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday hiked key benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent, citing sticky core inflation. This is the sixth time interest rate has been hiked by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) since May last year, taking the total quantum of hike to 250 basis points. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) by a majority decided to raise the policy repo rate by 25 basis points and keep a 'strong vigil' on inflation outlook.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday said the government is keeping an eye on inflation which is purely "extraneous" nowadays because of fuel and fertiliser prices. Replying to the debat on the Supplementary Demands for Grants in the Rajya Sabha, the minister said wholesale inflation has fallen to a 21-month low. Later, the Rajya Sabha returned the Supplementary Demands for Grants to the Lok Sabha, thus completing the process of authorising the government to spend an additional Rs 3.25 lakh crore in FY2022-23.
Siddaramaiah's anti-urban bias, which he does not bother to hide, may become the Congress government's biggest weakness unless it is corrected.
Ahead of the Budget 2009-10, the economic survey on Thursday suggested tax cuts and increase in government expenditure as part of another stimulus package to help the economy overcome the global shock.
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