What is most troubling is that not a single party that is part of INDIA has talked about any kind of reform and economic sense, argues R Jagannathan.
The policy action plan being prepared for the new government does not see the immediate need for a fresh fiscal stimulus package, but recommends a new oil pricing formula and disinvestment of government equity in public sector undertakings in small doses.
Retail inflation dipped marginally to 6.44 per cent in February, mainly on account of a slight easing in prices of food and fuel items though it remained above the Reserve Bank's comfort level of 6 per cent for the second month in a row. As per the government data released on Monday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation was at 6.52 per cent in January and 6.07 per cent in February 2022. The retail inflation rate for the food basket worked out to be 5.95 per cent in February, marginally lower than 6 per cent in January.
Liquidity will be tight and inflation would be about 4.4.5 per cent. In this scenario, the 10-year yield is unlikely to stabilise below 6.25 per cent.
The current account deficit is the difference between inflow and outflow of foreign exchange.
Till such time that a new governance framework comes into being, the progress of reforms in health, education, land, labour, electricity and agriculture could remain fraught with problems, agitations and delays, observes A K Bhattacharya.
The proposed four per cent inflation target is onerous, considering India is currently battling near-double-digit increases in prices.
One could argue that India is not troubled in the same way as China is by a declining population and structural problems in real estate/construction and finance. But India has serious trade and fiscal imbalances, and excessive dependence on capital expenditure by the government, points out T N Ninan.
The ratings are opinions that reflect the ability and willingness of the rated entity to meet financial obligations.
Addressing bankers and economists at Bancon 2013, a flagship event of the Indian Banks' Association, Chidambaram told the lenders to deal firmly with wilful defaulters, but handhold those who are reeling under the impact of the economic slowdown.
It would be a miracle indeed if we grow at 7/8 per cent a year over the current and next few years, says A V Rajwade
The share of low-cost money in total deposits continued to take a knock at the close of FY23 as banks engaged in intense competition by offering higher interest rates on term money to garner funds amid tight liquidity conditions. The share of current accounts and saving accounts (CASA) in total deposits declined by 2-4 per cent by end of March 2023 from March 2022 figure, according to BSE filings by private banks. The ease of movement of funds on digital platforms and the deployment of money by businesses from current accounts also played a role in dwindling the share of CASA money.
Ramaswamy's stance on H-1B visas is reminiscent of the 2016 Trump campaign, when then-candidate Donald Trump, who has also hired a number of foreign workers under H-1B visas for his businesses, took a hardline stance on these foreign workers before later softening his rhetoric.
The 55 basis point (bps) spike in the US 10-year bond yield, triggered by a combination of FOMC's hawkish commentary and BOJ's relaxation of the yield control curve (YCC) has made analysts cautious on Asian equities and expect them to trade sideways in the short-to-medium term.
The Bharatiya Janata Party on Tuesday hit out at the government for the recent hike in petrol prices and alleged that this increase is a result of the UPA regime's wrong economic policies and not an outcome of any current global situation.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Tuesday that India's general government debt (comprising both central and state government debt) could exceed 100 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the medium term. It also cautioned that long-term debt sustainability risks are high due to the significant investment required to meet India's climate change mitigation targets. The Indian government, however, disagreed, arguing that risks from sovereign debt are extremely limited as it is predominantly denominated in domestic currency.
For 2014-15, the bill on this account is likely to be 12.8% more than in 2013-14.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday announced the adoption of the New Delhi Leaders Declaration, a significant victory for India's G20 presidency that came amid increasing tensions and divergent views over the Ukraine conflict.
Analysts are divided on their retail price inflation forecast, with some saying the first quarter numbers will overshoot the RBI target by as much as 60 bps while others are softer in their estimate. Consumer price inflation retreated from its 15-month peak of 7.4 per cent in July to 6.8 per cent in August, much lower than the market expectations, despite vegetable prices remaining elevated at 26.1 per cent. Food inflation eased to 9.9 per cent from 11.5 per cent, led by some cooling of inflation in vegetables, cereals, pulses and milk.
Business houses expect rate cut in next RBI policy.
Tata Steel was the biggest gainer in the Sensex chart, rising 2.39 per cent, followed by Tata Motors, Power Grid, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement, NTPC, Nestle, HUL, Mahindra & Mahindra, Wipro, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Asian Paints. In contrast, Bajaj Finance, IndusInd Bank, Axis Bank, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finserv, ICICI Bank, Infosys and Titan were among the laggards.
Moody's Investors Service has warned that India, along with the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam are highly vulnerable to volatile food and energy prices in the Asia-Pacific region as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to disrupt supplies and raise the cost of agricultural products, especially cereals and vegetable oils, as well as fertilizers and other agricultural inputs. This is so because these countries have a higher weighting of energy and food prices in their consumer price index (CPI) baskets, Moody's said in its report released on Tuesday. The weighting of energy and food in overall Indian CPI stands at over 55 per cent.
Bold reform measures to sustain high growth trajectory figure high.
RBI said monetary management in the current fiscal will be dominated by the challenge of moderating inflation and anchoring inflation expectations, while remaining supportive of growth impulses.
The sharp rally in the markets thus far in fiscal 2023-24 (FY24) has left analysts struggling to find investment-worthy themes. The S&P BSE Sensex has surged nearly 7 per cent thus far in FY24 and hit a fresh 52-week high of 63,601.71 levels on June 22, mostly led by foreign institutional (FII) flows. "The Indian market has seen a broad rally in the past few months but headline indices have seen more modest performance. "We are not very clear about the reasons for the rally and the divergent performance and struggle to find ideas in the consumption, investment and outsourcing sectors after the sharp run-up in several of our favored sectors and stocks in the past two months," wrote Sanjeev Prasad, co-head, Kotak Institutional Equities, in a recent co-authored note with Anindya Bhowmik and Sunita Baldawa.
Ahead of the 2023-24 Union Budget, the thinking at the top level of the central government is clear: Gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6-6.5 per cent is a comfortable enough target for FY24 and the focus should be on fiscal consolidation to ensure that the sovereign cost of borrowing does not become prohibitively expensive in a high-interest rate environment, according to people in the know. Those aware of deliberations between the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) and the Ministry of Finance said while the Budget would look to strike a balance between infrastructure investment and welfare schemes, it is unlikely to be populist, though it will be the last full-year Budget before the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Incidentally, 6-6.5 per cent GDP growth is what the upcoming 2022-23 Economic Survey is expected to project for FY24.
The European Commission has unveiled plans for a radical reform of the European Union's economic governance to tackle the underlying causes of the current debt crisis in the euro area.
Pre-Budget excercise next month should scrupulously avoid adventurism of all types and refrain from making excessively ambitious projections on revenue and expenditure numbers for 2023-24, suggests A K Bhattacharya.
'The long maturity of these funds makes them well-suited for long-term financial goals such as saving for retirement or children's education or marriage.'
With inflation remaining at elevated levels, central banks around the world, including the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), will kill excess demand in economy over the next six to eight months, sources in the know said. They also indicated that there could be a rate hike in June, when the inflation forecast for the current financial year would be raised. The RBI, the sources said, might announce more steps such as raising the limit on held-to-maturity (HTM) bonds to support government borrowings but might not come out with any further quantitative easing GSAP (Government Securities Acquisition Programme) measures.
A possible solution would be to set them up in the barren land or in land with low agricultural productivity.
On one hand, South Indian states have been complaining about denial of a proportionate portion of the sharable funds from the Centre, based on population. On the other hand, they stand to lose Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha seats that again are based on population, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
WPI inflation fell to a 5-year low of 3.74 per cent while the retail inflation was at 7.8 per cent in August.
At present, the NMP states a series of fiscal incentives, including tax sops, will be offered but only to small and medium enterprises.
Echoing the position articulated by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, China and Russia on Thursday warned that imminent withdrawal of fiscal stimulus by the US could have an adverse impact on the global economy and cautioned the Obama administration against it.
Indications are that the DMK combine will win more seats than the AIADMK and BJP, but is facing a tough fight in about half a dozen from the rest, predicts N Sathiya Moorthy of the electoral contest in Tamil Nadu.
The employment situation remains dire. Whatever can be done to promote greater low-skill employment should be pursued aggressively, advises former chief economic adviser Shankar Acharya.
As he left for the G-20 Summit in Toronto, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh ion Friday cautioned that the global economic recovery is 'still fragile and uneven' and asked world leaders to calibrate exit strategies in the light of growing concerns over expansionary fiscal policies.
In Q1, India's GDP shrank by a staggering 24 per cent year-on-year amid the imposition of one of the most stringent global nationwide lockdowns.
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